Real Estate Trends

The largest government spending initiative in America's history is now underway. The expectation is that stimulus spending will go where it is likely to benefit the largest number of people. This means the focus will be on big cities in States with high unemployment. These states will benefit immediately from the improvement in payments to the unemployed and cities in these states may also benefit from infrastructure spending. California is interesting not only because its large population will see billions in personal income tax cuts and unemployment relief, it will also benefit from significant infrastructure spending in the IT and high-tech manufacturing sectors. California companies are leaders in alternative energy and this sector is about to take off in a big way. California could be a big winner.Another important factor to be considered is President Obama's conviction that continuing urban sprawl is not in the nation's best interest. High transportation costs, an aging population and runaway costs for health care and social services all point to revitalization of America's inner cities during the Obama Presidency.In severe economic downturns the retail sector suffers immediately. Many businesses close and vacate their premises. These vacancies often create outstanding opportunities for developers particularly where a 'change of use' is viable. Conversions of highly visible vacant industrial space into lower cost space for retailers forced to relocate can be very profitable. Redevelopment of abandoned inner city factories, warehouses and older office buildings into studio offices, apartments, boutique hotels and condominiums will become increasingly popular. Change creates opportunities.In the near to medium term new suburbia will probably not see strong growth in most cities. Older suburbs, the inner rings, will continue to experience pressure to increase housing density and increase availability of support services. Look for sites that are well located for seniors housing in these areas also consider soft rezoning of good locations for sites that work for community medical centers. In some inner ring areas contiguous residential foreclosures will enable site consolidations. Land value may often significantly exceed the cost of buying all the homes and rezoning the property. This is expected to be a significant development opportunity across America for the foreseeable future.Growing rental market demand will come from immigrant families and others requiring low cost family accommodation with access to public transportation or a short commute to work. In order to maintain and grow tax revenues municipalities can be expected to be more open to rezoning inner ring residential areas enabling higher density development. Prime recreational real estate (particularly waterfront property) will benefit from the wariness of individuals to participate in the stock market. Expect to see competitively priced, investment quality properties begin to sell early in the recovery and continue to attract buyers. The renewable energy stimulus initiative opens a brand new market for land with development potential for solar and wind power